February 27, 2004

Risk v. reward

"The FDA has approved Avastin for use as a front-line treatment for colon cancer." Good news, right? But if you wonder what part of the story behind health care costs is, try this: "The drug will cost $2,200 per dose, with patients receiving two doses per month. Global sales of the drug are expected to peak at $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion."

Now, very few patients are gonna pay $2,200 twice a month out of pocket, which means their insurance companies are going to pay the bulk of the freight. In fact, that's addressed in the Reuters article discussing this event. "He [Ian Clark, Genentech's vice president of bio-oncology] said they expect insurance reimbursement of about 95 percent of the cost of the drug." That means that somewhere down the road, depending on how many patients are identified as needing Avastin, premiums from those insurance companies are going to rise.

This is not to say I think Genentech is over-pricing, or even that the insurance companies will unfairly raise their premiums. It's only to point out that this is a part of the health care discussion which needs to be fully understood before an intelligent plan to reduce costs can be formulated.

Posted by Linkmeister at February 27, 2004 11:51 AM
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