September 03, 2009

A prediction

If Obama throws liberals/progressives under the bus by accepting health care reform without a public option which would compete directly with the insurance companies, many of them will be so discouraged and angry that they will stay home and refrain from voting in the midterm elections in 2010. If the White House takes the "where else are they gonna go" attitude, it will find many of them just won't go (to the voting booth) at all.

If that happens, there goes the Democratic majority in the House. They might still have more than 218 votes, but it won't be close to the 256 - 178 margin they currently enjoy.

The Senate majority of 59 - 40 may decline by two or three seats as well.

And if those things happen, the odds of Obama getting the rest of his agenda passed will drop accordingly, which will diminish the likelihood of his re-election in 2012 as well.

Posted by Linkmeister at September 3, 2009 03:41 PM | TrackBack
Comments

The Obama calculation is: and they'll go where?

Posted by: Rob McMillin at September 3, 2009 05:48 PM

How does a 'public option' compete directly with insurance companies?

Posted by: Mike at September 3, 2009 06:57 PM

As I said, Rob, I think they'll stay home.

Mike, by offering insurance plans partially subsidized by the government for people who can't get private plans. At least that's my understanding of the current definition; it changes.

Posted by: Linkmeister at September 3, 2009 08:43 PM

I do believe that we'll be so grieved by what I believe will be a final failure to move health care into the 21st century that we too will stay home.

Posted by: Karan at September 4, 2009 08:35 PM